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The joint future combat air system pursued by France and Germany since 2018 was cancelled in June after disagreements between Dassault Aviation and Airbus Defence and Space over leadership and aircraft requirements. Safran has since said it will end its joint engine effort with Germany’s MTU Aero Engines. France now appears likely to pursue its own programme, while Germany is exploring possible involvement in the rival GCAP project led by the UK, Italy and Japan. GCAP is being developed through the Edgewing joint venture and targets a first flight in 2035. Canada joined as an observer in July and Saudi Arabia is also seeking involvement. Leonardo chief executive Lorenzo Mariani said Germany could strengthen the programme financially, while warning that another core partner could increase delay risk. Airbus Defence and Space has said it would want meaningful workshare and leadership if it joined. Rolls-Royce currently occupies the engine position and has not committed to sharing propulsion work with MTU.

Germany brings GCAP something its existing partners want: additional funding and another potential national order book. Joining also creates a division-of-work problem. The programme already has incumbent companies across aircraft, systems and propulsion, so giving Germany meaningful industrial participation means either reopening allocations already made or admitting Germany mainly as a buyer and financier. The value of German entry therefore depends on whether the extra demand and funding outweigh the disruption caused by redistributing work.

Germany gains a route back into a major European fighter programme, but the most exposed company is MTU Aero Engines. Safran’s withdrawal removes MTU from the French route, while propulsion work inside GCAP is already held by Rolls-Royce. Airbus can negotiate for airframe and systems work if Germany enters, but MTU has no equivalent guaranteed position. German participation could therefore strengthen the programme financially while leaving one of Germany’s major aerospace suppliers outside its most valuable workstream.

The condition to watch is whether any German entry to GCAP includes propulsion work from the outset. Our position is that a deal reached within the next twelve months is more likely to settle airframe and systems participation while leaving engine work unchanged, because propulsion already has an incumbent supplier and reopening that allocation adds another layer of negotiation. This view would be wrong if Germany joins with MTU formally included in the engine workshare from day one. That would show the existing partners value Germany’s financial and industrial contribution enough to reopen one of the programme’s most settled areas.